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4% of the wagers on markets priced at -110/-110 (you can use OddsShopper's Hold Percentage Calculator to find this number for any two-way betting market).
Nevertheless, they are models that estimate probabilities and do not compute finite scenarios like a deck of cards.
One way to mitigate the uncertainty in your chances of winning is to control your bet sizing.
Uniform bet sizing is a straightforward way to do this despite some flaws.
A 10% edge is going to come through for you 10x more than a 1% edge.
Considering how fragile EV is, and how you can never be completely certain how robust your prediction is, you can start to see another reason why line shopping is so important.
However, what if your theoretical edge, in reality, was 54%? That would take your EV down to approximately $3.
But if you happen to shop for the best lines (using OddsShopper's tools, of course), you may find the best at a -105 Vig.
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I'm building a blackjack playing bot for fun that plays the following table:
Bet is minimum 10 and maximum 1000.
no resplitting, no double after split, blackjack pays.
3:2? I get confused here sometimes - 10 bid gets you a total of 25 back on blackjack (15 + your 10 initial).
you get pushes back (I've seen a couple setups where you have to play a hand until you or the house lose, and one where the house wins ties).
Anyway, I'm allowed/encouraged to optimize a bot for this.
It can go full rainman, but I actually don't know what the right plays are.
I have a "profitable" engine up using a basic card counting method for betting (that just plays basic strategy), but I know with the ability to exactly track cards (short of the hole cards when I don't see them) I should be able to do all sorts of fun tricks.
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